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GLOBAL ECONOMY WEEKAHEAD-US recovery puts onus on Europe and China


* World’s top financial policymakers at IMF meeting

* Debate about how to boost growth comes to life again

* ECB signals may act on low inflation

* Questions over China’s ability to rebalance smoothly

* Minutes of last FOMC meeting due

By Mike Peacock

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) – The world’s top financial
policymakers descend on Washington later this week with a debate
fizzing once again about what needs to be done to galvanise
economic growth.

The International Monetary Fund has already called on Europe
to do more ahead of the IMF April 11-13 Spring gathering,
alongside which G20 finance ministers and central bankers will
meet.

That irritated European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi who
suggested the Fund should put out a wish list for the United
States just before the next Federal Reserve policy meeting.

But with the United States firmly in recovery mode – its
monthly jobs report on Friday showed hiring was robust in March
– it is natural that much of the focus will be on Europe and
China and their ability to foster sustainable growth.

Last week, Beijing said it would accelerate construction of
rail projects and cut taxes for small firms, the first concrete
action this year to boost activity. Economists still expect
growth in the world’s second largest economy to slow into the
middle of the year.

Liquidity crunches and a first-ever domestic bond default,
as Beijing tries to rebalance its economy, have put investors on
edge though they have taken comfort from the fact that the worse
things get the more likely it is the government will stimulate
the economy.

Chinese trade figures for March, due on Thursday, will give
the best indication of the latest economic state of play.

Goldman Sachs expects global growth to pick up in the second
quarter of the year.

“The U.S. economy is set to bounce back from the drags from
weather and destocking. And China’s extremely weak start to the
year should also give way to something a little better, as
modest stimulus falls into place,” said Dominic Wilson, chief
markets economist at Goldman.

The bigger picture, Wilson said, was that U.S. monetary
conditions remain ultra-easy despite the tapering of bond
purchases while further easing was to be expected from the ECB
and Bank of Japan, though probably not at its meeting this week.

Minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting, due on Wednesday,
will be closely read given that was in comments just after that
Janet Yellen rattled markets by suggesting interest rates could
rise rather earlier than had been priced in.

None of the Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank or Poland’s
central bank are expected to shift tack in the week to come.

SHIFT IN FRANKFURT?

The ECB sat on its hands last week but Draghi was at pains
to say future policy action – including printing money which is
the toughest pill for it to swallow – was possible if inflation
did not pick up.

The big question is whether the ECB is trying to talk down a
strong euro, which will cut import prices and depress inflation
further, without having to take drastic action or whether the
sense of alarm has grown.

Draghi and his key lieutenants will attend the IMF meeting
and they will not be short of advice. His deputy, Vitor
Constancio, speaks at the European Parliament on Monday.

IMF head Christine Lagarde has already said the euro zone
needs more monetary easing including via unconventional measures
but with inflation likely to pick up in April for technical
reasons, she is likely to be left waiting.

“Assuming the April inflation rate comes in higher, the
discussion about quantitative easing (money printing to buy
assets) is likely to subside,” said Michael Schubert, economist
at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Within the euro zone, the growth debate has been revived by
President Francois Hollande’s reshuffled cabinet saying France
may not meet an already-extended deadline to reduce its budget
deficit to European Union limits in order to allow for tax cuts
to help consumers and businesses.

EU officials have called on Paris to meet its targets but
Italy’s new premier, Matteo Renzi, is pushing on similar ground
and they will find allies in Washington.

Ukraine will also loom large at the IMF meeting. The Fund
has offered a bailout of up to $18 billion, hoping to pull in
$27 billion overall, and said it is confident whatever hue of
government wins late May elections will stick with the programme
which includes dramatic increase in domestic gas prices.

Still up for discussion is whether other conditions could be
less stringent than the IMF would usually demand.

Overall, whether much of substance comes from the Group of
20 and IMF meetings remains to be seen.

“The big picture arising from our analysis is that effects
of G20 summits are small, short-lived, non-systematic and
non-robust,” a study published by the ECB said on Friday.

(Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

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